Monsoon season this year in India is expected to be ‘below normal’ in 2019.
As per private weather forecasting agency Skymet, monsoons this year are expected to be at 93% for June to September months.
El-Nino effect
El-Nino is a regular climate phenomenon in which the Pacific Ocean is at a higher temperature for long periods of time. Since monsoon winds pick water from the Arabian sea, the presence of El-Nino would mean lesser water available for the monsoon.
It is expected that this effect will become softer during later months, which ultimately means that June would experience lesser rains but as the season progresses, there would be a respite for farmers and the general public.
Probability
There is no possibility of above-average rains this year.
Predictions month wise:-
June: 75% chance of below normal.
July: 35% chance of normal, 55% below normal.
August & September: 55% chance of normal.
Why Monsoon is so important?
India is essentially an agriculture country. Monsoon gives 70% of rains in India and key Kharif season is all dependent on it. The whole economy indirectly depends on it and RBI is about to announce its monetory policy for the new financial year.
While East and Central India are expected to suffer the most from the monsoon, chances of drought cannot be ruled out in some regions.
