Is the world running out of diamonds or is there a bigger picture to this rumor?

Diamonds are a ‘woman’s best friends’- this classic statement might change soon if experts (De Beers) in deep mine diamond mining are to be taken seriously. They claim that global diamond production will peak in the year 2019, after which it will begin a path of eternal decline in which a 1% to 2% a year or even 5% annual drop until 2030 is inevitable.

However, contradictory statements from conspiracy theorists claim that this is a tactic by the De Beers cartel to scale up the prices of diamonds to a newer high in order to recapture the market from costlier elements like platinum and rhodium.

First let’s see how diamonds are mined.

Most diamonds were crystallized around 3.3 billion years ago while the Earth is almost 4.5 billion years old. These diamonds are found nearly 90-120 miles beneath the Earth’s surface and are formed under tremendous pressure and temperatures ranging from 16520-23720 F.

The world’s top three mines currently are Botswana which mines 24 million carats of diamonds, Russia which mines 17.8 million carats of diamonds and Canada which mines 10.9 million carats of diamonds annually.

The most common mining types are open-pit mining, hard rock mining, alluvial mining, and marine diamond mining.

So, is the world running out of diamonds? Or, are we being fooled into something that’s ‘fake news’?

Yes, and no. It is partly true. The problem with mining? Once you reach the 120-mile depth, the diamonds are bound to finish someday. The deeper we dig, the fewer diamonds will be left for man to scavenge.

We have already breached the 625-meter deep mark in most mines across the world like Argyle (Australia), Udachnaya Pipe (Sakha Republic, Russia), Koffiefontein (South Africa) and Jwaneng (Botswana) setting new deep-drilling world records.

The last global supply peaked in the year 2006 with over 176 million carats mined in a year. If you compare it with the figures provided above for the top 3 diamond mines, it is glaringly clear that diamond production is slowly slumping to a massive halt.

Kieron Hodgson of Panmure Gordon & Co. estimates that almost 10 percent of global diamond supply will fall by the year 2021. Berenberg Bank’s Richard Hatch claims that by 2022, prices of diamonds will steadily skyrocket to new global highs.

If industry sources are to believed, the diamond industry (especially De Beers) has been warning the world about the looming threat of a shortage of gems since over 15 years! The ‘Hungry Crocodile’ chart for the diamond industry shows that diamond demand is outstripping its supply. We are creating a diamond deficit in the industry mainly due to large-scale mining for infrastructure projects and the diamonds that grace your earrings, necklaces, wedding bands and bracelets.

Diamond production in countries like Brazil, Congo, India, and South Africa has considerably fallen to new lows.

Hasn’t this scare been repeated in the past?

If you have read the book Blood Diamonds: Tracing the Deadly Path of the World's Most Precious Stones by Greg Campbell or seen the movie bearing the same name, you know about how the territory of Sierra Leone suffered due to diamond mining.

To recapitulate, in the 1880s the De Beers cartel created a global scare in the world by inciting civil war in Sierra Leone in the hunt to mine as many diamonds via illegal smuggling. Their main claim then was that the world’s diamond supplies are getting over! This deadly game ravaged the country with massive human rights violations and a deadly hunt for diamonds.

Yet here we are, over 125 years later, still mining diamonds. The point is – never believe something until it’s proven true!

Is there any hope left for the diamond industry?

Yes! While most analysts are claiming their research on conjecture and current mine depths and output capacities, newer mines with a fresh supply of diamonds are being discovered slowly.

Alluvial mining in Democratic Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, Zimbabwe, and Angola is picking up fast as per Chairman of the World Diamond Mark, Peter Meeus.

CEO of the Diamond Producers Association, Jean-Marc Lieberherr also agrees that alluvial mining and marine mining are the future of this industry since these are uncharted territories and pose the possibility of revealing new sources for diamond mining.

Let’s just hope all you ladies out there get to grace these beautiful rocks for eternity!